Sairie6784

Hello! I am very interested in seeing Peru in a few weeks (Dec 8 - 22). I’ve checked permits and even a few weeks away I can still get a permit for Machu Pichu on their official website. I am a late planner due to my friend canceling on a different trip (I had already been many times where we planned on going) so im considering Peru.

Basically my question is in the title. I do realize it’s the rainy season but I’ve read mixed things online. Some say it only rains intermittently and you can just wait a bit for the weather to clear out.

I have 2 weeks off and would like to visit primarily to see Machu Pichu. As well as rainbow mountain.

All I care about is being able to see that view of Machu Pichu (and Rainbow Mountain, but it’s less of a priority). If there’s a high chance that I won’t see anything then I’d consider going during dry season.

If it’s just cloudy and rainy I don’t really mind. Might even make it better to bring very lush and green. But would like to hear from the experts!

Any advice appreciated!

crellston

December is the rainy season, but not the peak of the rainy season which is in February. With two weeks in December you are pretty much guaranteed to see some sunshine and some rain. The big question is which will it be on the day/ days you decide to visit MP. The logistics of getting to MP are somewhat complicated (and expensive) . The optimal way is to arrive in Cusco and transfer directly to Ollantaytambo by bus or taxi. It is Lowe than Cusco so will be easier to acclimatise to the altitude. From Ollantaytambo you would need to get the train to Aguas Calientes and then the bus to the citadel. You would need to prebook a time slot and route. Whether it rains or shines on that date and time is anyones guess. If it were me I would probably opt for a midday slot. To maximise your chances of reasonable weather you ma6 want to book twos slots on consecutive days. Even better would be days a few days apart but that would involve two sets of train fares, accommodation etc. you could stay in Aguas Calientes but frankly, I wouldn’t want to be there any longer than necessary.

Rainbow Mountain is a very long day starting very early and hitting some very high altitudes.For me it wouldn’t be worth it in December, as to see the colours in all their glory your really need sunshine and blue skies. Overcast and rainy is not going to cut it IMO. Bear in mind that teh vast majority of teh photos of RB you see online have been photoshopped to some degree.

On the upside, the landscape will be greener and it will be less crowded. It is not that you "won’t see anything", of course you will , but if you are after those iconic views of MP against a bright blue sky, the probability is significantly reduced.

I have been in Peru on most months of the year. On balance, if my primary reason for going was to see MP in all its glory, I would go May- September.

Sairie6784

I assume that if I wanted greenery, but also see MP in all its glory, it would be best to visit in May since it’s just after rainy season? Or would it be dried out by then? Thank you so much for the advice! Leaning towards going another time, but still gonna take a day to think about it

tom_mn

In mid-September at midday, this was my experience. The rain and clouds will come and go. Went from completely obscured to entirely visible in 40 minutes (then obscured again). The reveal and conceal and reveal can be seen as a perk. Just avoid a tour that rushes you through and prevents waiting for a clear view. Plenty (over 1000) people on my day in September who were unable to wait till noon when the clouds started to break up had no views. Of course you will see buildings even in poor conditions.

kja

Of course, the chance of rain in September is about 10 percent, while the chance of rain in December is more like 45%.

tom_mn

This is a tangent, but the chance of a rainy day in September is 25%, not 10%

https://www.peruforless.com/blog/machu-picchu-weather

The only nearly reliable weather months are June-August.

Machu Picchu town (AC) has all the hallmarks of a wet Seattle/London climate, lichen growing on the twigs and moss hanging from the power lines.

Not a tangent is to say that with 100 rainy days a year, a sizable minority encounter clouds but still have an enjoyable visit, with the expense and complexity and onsite restrictions of visiting being for me a greater turn off than clouds (as long as you get views at some point).

kja

Thanks for providing that very useful link, tom_mn! I don't see statistics about the average probability of rain at any time (instead, I see the average number of rainy days, which is a slightly different thing), but the information would seem quite valuable to anyone planning a trip to Machu Picchu. And take note that the estimates of the chance of rain I provided could be mistaken -- I hadn't noticed that the source I consulted defaulted to Cuzco. My apologies for any confusion!

tom_mn

Cusco and the Sacred Valley are really in another climatic zone. The reliably clear, dry weather there is another world compared to MP.

I remember standing in the rain waiting for the MP shuttle and eyeing what looked like Spanish moss hanging from the power lines and noting how much more jungly it is, more a part of the Amazon than the Sacred Valley. Also walking down from MP to the Urubamba is in jungle, walking down from Pisac to the Urubamba at the end of the dry season is almost like desert like say the Superstition Mts east of Phoenix.

kja

Yes, it was a stupid, if inadvertent, error on my part -- an error for which I have already apologized. Perhaps we can move on.

tom_mn

I think it bears repeating. I had no idea beforehand and did some research and didn’t uncover how much wetter MP is than the other Cusco area sites which are cactus-y and arid.

For MP: It would be great if someone had put together a clear sky probability for each calendar day but I doubt it exists. I suspect there are only a handful of clear sunrises every year, but it would be nice to have data. Fortunately I took Crellston’s advice to not book before 10 am or I would have burned out waiting and missed the clearer pm weather.

i know people who have visited MP in December and had good visibility.

Sairie6784

Bump, I also feel like fog would be cool cause it adds to the mystery factor but also don’t want it to be completely covered so I don’t see anything. Would December be a good time or should I consider April or May instead?

what do you guys think

crellston

It would actually be fairly easy to put together a spreadsheet showing the clear sky probability on a day to day basis, IF the data existed. Before I retired I worked for several investment? actuarial consultancies and it the sort of job we would have given to a trainee actuary /consultant if things were quiet and they had too much time on their hands . I am sure the data for rainfall and sunshine hours for MP is available from some agency somewhere. However, I doubt that the historic data exists on an hour to hour basis for MP.

MP is in a mountainous cloud forest environment, effectively a "microclimate" where it is fairly safe to assume that it will be misty/foggy for a few hours post-dawn on many days. It is also fairly safe to assume that the probability of clear days will be significantly higher middle of the dry season (say June to August than it will be on the cusp of the season (May & September) .

The days of being able to hang out at MP for as long as your bladder would hold out are long gone. Probably a good thing as the place was getting vastly overcrowded. the downside of the new regime is that you have to choose a time and it is pot luck as to what the conditions are on the day. All very well to say there is a 10% or 25% chance of clear skies on this day or that, but few people really grasp what those statistics actually mean . One could argue that there is a 50/50 chance of them being correct!

If clear skies are a priority for anyone, I would suggest visiting Jun-August and timing from say 10:00am onward. (but there is always a chance - 50/50 , that I could be wrong ). . I get that for most people it will be a once in a lifetime experience but would suggest that it is best to just accept the reality of the weather conditions as they are and if it is sunny then great, your get the picture postcard photos. If it is misty/foggy then view it as a an ethereal experience and get a different sort of photo. With a little luck, maybe both. If it pours with rain then with the best will in the world, it is not going to be great!

mlgb

There are websites such as weatherspark as well as the Peruvian Metro service (senamhi.gob.pe ) should you want to do some research.

There can be extreme variability from year to year, especially due to La Nina or El Nino which affect the mountains as well as the coast. The projection at the moment is for heavier rainfall starting in February and March, while Nov through January is in the normal to low range (fun fact, the Sierra is usually opposite rainfall to the north coast). The first time I went to MP was in January, there were days when in rained heavily and others where it was dry part of the day. The following year, the train tracks washed away and tourists had to be airlifted out!

As far as geography it is a lot more complicated than tom_mn alleges. Machu Picchu and the Road to Manu is cloud forest, a narrow zone between moist warm jungle at the Manu National Park and River, and the dry cold mountains around the Sacred Valley. That is why you have those photos of the fog lifting and why early morning visitors sometimes have no view unless they wait. And why the vegetation is different than in the Sacred Valley, the moisture from the jungle does not stretch up that far up the Valley of the Urubamba River which is an Amazon tributary. I have never seen an orchid growing in nature in Seattle or London, for example! Many of the countries is South America are so biodiverse because the climate zones change with altitude and distance from the selva, not just rainfall.

But to answer your question, early December might be okay this year. Especially if you can be flexible and book your train a few days out. (It used to be that you could reschedule within 24 hours but I am not sure if that is still possible). And mid morning entry would be best. Don't bother trying to do "sunrise".

crellston

I can’t add much to what I have said already, except to reiterate that if it were me, I would go May-Sept and if greener landscapes are important to you then May would be better.

kja

I was fortunate to see the site under clear skies and also as the fog moved in. The fog definitely added a wonderfully mysterious and evocative element to the scene! That said, I personally would (and did) plan my trip for a time -- May -- that was more likely to allow me to see the site in clear weather.

tom_mn

Just FYI: orchids are the most widely distributed family of plants, some grow at 5000m and some growth north of the Arctic Circle. They grow in every state, e.g. the state flower of Minnesota is an orchid. So they may grow wild around Seattle or London. Not of course clinging to the bark of trees, but growing in wet areas like bogs.

Another tangent.

crellston

I did wonder at the comparison with London and Seattle. They may enjoy similarly temps but other than that, climate in London is nothing like that in Seattle and even less like MP. Orchids do grow wild in London but are a rarity and you would be hard pushed to find them. Plenty in Kew Gardens, and peoples houseplants though! Just walked the dog and not a sign of lichen hanging from power lines.

Perhaps fewer tangential observations and more answering the OP’s specific questions would be more helpful?

mjs

I would have some concern with the rocks getting slippery and falls to be more common with rain in the mountains.

crellston

Great point mjs. Not just the mountains, the cobbles on the streets of Cusco can be lethal in the rain! Something I can attest to form personal experience! Though to be fair, my wife would tell you that I am way more accident prone than most!

tom_mn

I put this on another topic:

“At first I was disappointed not to get a sunny day, but MP is dramatic with clouds. Recalling that in the Yellow Mountains of China, visitors are considered lucky when they get clouds and the landscape looks like a Chinese watercolor.”

Also adding had I had a discussion with another couple later who argued that clouds coming and going make for a better experience than blue sky. However it is entirely the OP’s preference, and one can’t really know what that is going to be in advance.